Energy & Environment – Electricity Generation “Greening Risk”

People in Ontario have worked to be leaders in sustaining and adopting renewable energy sources like hydroelectric, solar, and wind power to meet its electricity needs. While these sources offer significant environmental benefits, they also come with unique risks, especially given the uncertainty surrounding the climate change we may experience in years to come.

The extent human beings have created climate change is disputed. Viewpoints on this topic range widely and, to a degree, are polarized. The extent of environmental damage created by humans is uncertain…if that seems incorrect then, at least, people in Ontario need to accept that their views about extent of environmental damage created by humans is not shared by every Ontario citizen.

The climate changes caused by the use of energy…

• the science explaining root-cause-and-effect of climate changes,
• the nature of climate changes,
• the severity of climate changes, and
• the timing of climate changes

…all are disputed.

Let’s set aside the differing viewpoints and consider the potential risks that exist as we expand our use of “green/renewable” energy sources.

This blog introduces examples of these risks and underscores the importance of a diversified and resilient energy strategy. Many of the risks overlap…that is, they may occur simultaneously. This expands the uncertainties that must be addressed through more sophisticated risk management processes, considering the likelihood of simultaneous occurrence of risk events and the allocation of resources to address simultaneous risk events.

Hydroelectric Power: Vulnerability to Water Availability

Hydroelectric power is a historic and integral cornerstone of Ontario’s energy portfolio., relying on the flow of rivers and reservoirs to generate electricity. However, climate change poses several risks to this energy source. Two examples:

Variable Precipitation Patterns

Climate change is expected to alter precipitation patterns, leading to periods of drought or intense rainfall. Reduced water flow during droughts can decrease hydroelectric power generation, while excessive rainfall can lead to flooding and dam safety concerns.

Changing Snowmelt Patterns

In regions where hydroelectric power depends on snowmelt, changing temperature patterns can affect the timing and volume of water available for electricity generation. Early or reduced snowmelt can limit water availability during peak demand periods.

Solar Power: Dependence on Sunlight

Solar power is a growing component of Ontario’s renewable energy mix. Its effectiveness is closely tied to climatic conditions. Three examples:

Weather Variability

Solar power generation is highly dependent on sunny conditions. Increased cloud cover, prolonged periods of overcast skies, and extreme weather events can reduce solar energy output.

Seasonal Variations

In Ontario, the amount of sunlight varies significantly between seasons. Winter months, with shorter days and frequent cloud cover, result in less production of solar energy, necessitating reliable backup sources to meet demand.

Extreme Weather Events

Many people forecast climate change will bring increased frequency and severity of extreme weather events, such as hailstorms, which can damage solar panels and reduce their efficiency and lifespan.

Wind Power: Sensitivity to Wind Patterns

Wind power is another critical element of Ontario’s renewable energy strategy. It too faces climate-related challenges. Two examples:

Wind Pattern Changes

Climate change alters wind patterns, affecting the consistency and strength of winds in areas where wind farms are located. Reduced wind speeds can lower electricity generation, while unpredictable gusts can strain the infrastructure.

Extreme Weather

Wind turbines are vulnerable to extreme weather events, such as ice storms, which can cause physical damage and operational disruptions. Increased frequency of such events can raise maintenance costs and reduce reliability.

A Resilient Energy Future for Ontario

Ideally, modelling and forecasting will advance and reduce uncertainties about future climate and weather. While these advancements will happen to some degree, we will still need to advance risk management strategies and implementation processes to mitigate these risks and ensure a stable and sustainable energy supply.

Ontario must adopt a multifaceted approach, including, as examples:

Electricity Generation “Greening Risk”

The more Ontario expands electricity generation sources that are susceptible to weather and climate change risks, the greater the need for more sophisticated risk management. This advanced risk management will also address risks related to electricity infrastructure, above ground and to a lesser extent below ground.

Diversification

Relying on a mix of energy sources, including hydroelectric, solar, wind, nuclear, and emerging technologies, can reduce the impact of any single source’s variability.

Energy Storage

Investing in advanced energy storage solutions, such as batteries and pumped hydro storage, can help balance supply and demand, especially during periods of low renewable energy output.

Grid Modernization

Enhancing the electricity grid’s resilience to withstand and quickly recover from extreme weather events is crucial. This includes upgrading infrastructure and integrating smart grid technologies.

Climate Adaptation Strategies

Developing and implementing strategies to adapt to changing climatic conditions, such as water management plans for hydroelectric systems and protective measures for solar and wind installations, is essential.

Conclusion

While hydroelectric, solar, and wind power offer significant environmental and economic benefits, they also come with inherent greening risks, particularly in the context of climate change and severe weather events. By recognizing the potential challenges and proactively addressing them through advanced risk management processes, Ontario people and organizations can lead in renewable energy while ensuring a resilient, dependable, and sustainable electricity supply for our future generations.